Nottingham’s ‘Rental Generation’ to grow by 5,841 households by 2021

There are rumors that the buy to let market is about to die, with the new stamp duty changes and how mortgage tax relief will be calculated. I have heard it mentioned that 500,000 rental properties will flood the market nationally in the next 12 months as landlords leave the rental market - have you heard the phrase ‘Bad news sells newspapers’? I would like to explain why buy to let market in Nottingham is only going in one direction – and that’s not the direction the papers say they are going.

According to Sheffield University, buy to let landlords will continue fuelling the growth of the private rented sector in the coming decades. By their estimates (and they are considered a centre of excellence on the topic), the rate of homeownership nationally will fall to 50% by 2032, while the rate of private sector renting will increase to 35% (interestingly, in Nottingham it stands at 24% today). Therefore, the demand for rental accommodation in Nottingham is likely to grow by 5,841 households in the next five years ... and not reduce as is suggested by the national press.

         

Nottingham property values over the last six years have risen far more on average than wages/salaries.  This has meant as homeownership and mortgage availability is dependent on the ability to pay, that home ownership has further been pushed out of reach for many, at the same time as the stock of council houses has withered. (Nationally, the number of council houses in the last ten years has dropped from 3.16m to 2.18m households - a drop of 31.1%).

Now it is true the Tory’s efforts to fix the deficiency of affordable housing have focused on those who want to buy a home, ranging from help to buy and their much boasted about help to buy Isa, and starter home scheme, an initiative offering a 20% discount for first time buyers … but if you are unable to save for the deposit ... none of this means anything, this will probably include most Nottingham ’20 somethings’.

Currently, 72,036 people live in private rented accommodation in Nottingham. This is substantial number and a sizeable chunk of the electorate. So whilst it appears the Nottingham “Rental Generation” youngsters will continue to rent and to not to buy for the reasons set out above, Nottingham buy-to-let landlords will be lifted by the projections of greater rental demand. Nottingham and the area around it still offers the prospect of strong economic growth forecasts and has a reputation as a lively and highly desirable place to live. With the new rules on tax, more and more landlords will be looking to move away from the previous honeypot of central London, its higher prices mean lower rental yields. With the new tax rules and central London’s cooling of house price inflation, more and more landlords will look further afield, including Nottingham.

So, by 2021, the number of rental properties in Nottingham l will rise to 40,174. This prediction in growth of the Nottingham rental market is even on the back of the government clamping down on tax reliefs for landlords. Gone are the days of making guaranteed returns on BTL property. For the last 20 to 30 years, irrespective of which property you bought, making decent money on buy to let property was like shooting fish in a barrel anyone could do it but not so much now. You must take a more considered approach to your existing and future portfolio, especially in Nottingham. The balance of capital growth and yield, especially in this low interest rate world we live in, means Nottingham landlords need to do more homework to ensure the investment in property gives the desired returns. For information and tips on the Nottingham property market email me on Jaclyn.bartlett@centrickproperty.co.uk